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June 20-27, 2009 Window + May results |
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Contributed by job
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Sunday, 14 June 2009 |
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LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of May 23-30, 2009 began a 4-month series of Top Windows such as I have seldom seen. The June and July windows may produce spectacular seismicity, and I have mixed emotions about this summer of 2009. ( In my younger years my mid-year thoughts were mainly along the lines of summer employment, as well as getting a dark tan. Now, it is trying to avoid cancer, keeping off excess poundage along with new concerns about living through this American descent to a socialistic society, along with international thumping of nuclear drums.)
May 23-30, 2009 prediction results:
(1) For Northern California my hindsight view through a Seismic Window was that of a seismic desert. The last local quakes exceeding 3.0M were the 3.1M in Oakland on May 13 and the 3.3M near Morgan Hill on May 5th Thus, my prediction scored 00% (2) For Southern California the 3.5M near Mexicali on May 22 barely met my place and magnitude parameters, but scored 100%. Missing by a few hours before the third ring out from a timing bull’s-eye was an impressive 4.0M on the Newport-Inglewood fault on May 19th. Also, a swarm of quakes in Owens Valley shook Olancha from May 23-30, exactly within the May Window. The maximum of 4.7M on May 23rd was 168 miles from Los Angeles, the second ring out from the place bulls-eye for a score of 80%.
) For Southern California the 3.5M near Mexicali on May 22 barely met my place and magnitude parameters, but . Missing by a few hours before the third ring out from a timing bull’s-eye was an impressive 4.0M on the Newport-Inglewood fault on May 19. Also, a swarm of quakes in Owens Valley shook Olancha from May 23-30, exactly within the May Window. The maximum of 4.7M on May 23 was 168 miles from Los Angeles, the second ring out from the place bulls-eye for a score of 80%.(3) The Northwest came through again when a 4.3M struck offshore from Bandon, Oregon on May 26th, scoring 100%. No other quakes in Washington or Oregon even reached a magnitude of 3.0.
The Northwest came through again when a 4.3M struck offshore from Bandon, Oregon on May 26, . No other quakes in Washington or Oregon even reached a magnitude of 3.0.(4) My prediction for a major quake globally proved to be all too correct when a 7.3 magnitude struck on May 28th off the Gulf Coast of Honduras. Although six people perished, it would have been much more disastrous had it hit on land near a highly populated area. This was only the sixth major event this year anywhere on Earth and it was the first in more than two months. (The last one was the 7.6M on March 19th in the Tonga Islands.) The Honduras quake scored 100% for time, place and magnitude.
My prediction for a major quake globally proved to be all too correct when a 7.3 magnitude struck on May 28 off the Gulf Coast of Honduras. Although six people perished, it would have been much more disastrous had it hit on land near a highly populated area. This was only the sixth major event this year anywhere on Earth and it was the first in more than two months. (The last one was the 7.6M on March 19 in the Tonga Islands.) The Honduras quake for time, place and magnitude.(5) My non-scoring MOSS prediction was for a quake of 3.0+M to hit the state of New York during the last half of May. Right on schedule, the capital city of Albany was rattled by a 3.0 on May 18th, barely into the last half of the month. I find that this was even less likely than I had thought, as only three other New York quakes in the past six year have reached my predicted minimum: ( 3.1M, July 28, 2007), (3..2M, Aug. 30, 2007), and (Feb. 03 2009, 3.1M).
My non-scoring MOSS prediction was for a quake of 3.0+M to hit the state of New York during the last half of May. Right on schedule, the capital city of Albany was rattled by a , barely into the last half of the month. I find that this was even less likely than I had thought, as only three other New York quakes in the past six year have reached my predicted minimum: ( 3.1M, July 28, 2007), (3..2M, Aug. 30, 2007), and (Feb. 03 2009, 3.1M). During the May window there were also small quakes of 3.0M near Ottawa, Canada and in Nevada; in addition, a 3.7M shook Cutbank, Montana. My May summary score was 00 +100 +100+100 = 300 / 4 = 75% my long term average.
PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 20-27, 2009. Because of near-record tides I have 85% confidence in (1) One or more events of 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo, and (2) within 140 miles of Los Angeles, and (3) with an epicenter naming Oregon or Washington. Also predicted: (4) a major quake of 7.0+M globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the largest earthquakes have been located.
(8)
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Prediction for April 23-30, 2009 |
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Contributed by job
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Sunday, 19 April 2009 |
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LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Full Moon Seismic Window of March 8-15, 2009 was fairly impressive, although the Secondary Window for the month, associated with the new Moon, was also a time of concentrated seismic activity. (From April through October 2009 the New Moon Window will reign supreme, because of the proximity of the Moon at perigee)
Several of my subscribers have contacted me, wondering what had happened to their April issue of SYZYGY. I explained that once a year there is a two-week delay when I shift my Primary Window from NM to FM or vice versa. For the March Window………
(1) For the greater SF Bay Area there was a widely felt quake of 3.8M centered near Milpitas on the first day of the window (March 8th at 7:47 p.m.) (Score: 100%)
For the greater SF Bay Area there was a widely felt quake of 3.8M centered near Milpitas on the first day of the window (March 8 at 7:47 p.m.) (On the same day there were quakes of 3.4 and 3.2M near the Pinnacles, south of Hollister, and they would rate 90% & 70% ) Also scoring 70% was a 3.2M near Morgan Hill on March12th.
(2) For the 140 mile radius from Los Angeles, a 3.5M quake near Calexico on March11th met the prediction for a score of 100%. A 3.1M at Diamond Bar on March 10 just missed the target.
For the 140 mile radius from Los Angeles, a 3.5M quake near Calexico on March11 met the prediction for a A 3.1M at Diamond Bar on March 10 just missed the target.(3) For Washington/Oregon the 4.4M off the coast of Oregon on March 14th scored 100%. Another 4.3M hit the same area two days late for a score of 80%.
(4) No global quake of 7.0+M hit after February 18th until March19th, when there was a biggie of 7.6M near the Tonga Islands on March 19th, four days late so no score. Also there was an unusual quake (6.4M) in the far north near Spitzbergen on March 6th.
No global quake of 7.0+M hit after February 18 until March19, when there was a biggie of 7.6M near the Tonga Islands on March 19, four days late so Also there was an unusual quake (6.4M) in the far north near Spitzbergen on March 6. My non-scoring MOSS prediction (Monthly Outright Seismic Speculation) came close. I had suggested that a 4+M quake would hit Oklahoma or Texas during March. Actually, Oklahoma City was shaken by a swarm of quakes measuring up to 3.4M on March 17th.
Later in March the Salton Sea area experienced an impressive swarm of hundreds of quakes near Bombay Beach, just south of the presumed termination of the San Andreas Fault. The swarm began on the first day of spring and continued into April, with the largest measuring 4.8M on March 24th.
APRIL PREDICTIONS
The Primary Seismic Window of April 23-30, 2009 begins a run of 7 consecutive months where the new Moon is incorporated, rather than the Full stage. The new Moon is on April 24 and Perigee is three days later. The maximum tidal ranges on April 27 reach 7.7 ft. at the Golden Gate and 14.7 ft. at Puget Sound.. At Los Angeles outer harbor the maximum tide will be 7.4 ft. on April 26th. There is an 80% chance for one or more earthquakes with the following parameters:
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W)
) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W)(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of downtown Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W)
(3) 3.5-6.0M with an epicenter located in Washington or Oregon.
3.5-6.0M with an epicenter located in Washington or Oregon.(4) 7.0+M major quake globally, probably in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where more than 80% of the world’s strongest earthquakes occur annually. (Only 6 such events to date.)
7.0+M major quake globally, probably in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where more than 80% of the world’s strongest earthquakes occur annually. (Only 6 such events to date.)(8)
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Predictions for MARCH 2009 |
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Contributed by job
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Saturday, 11 April 2009 |
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(8)
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of February 7-14,. 2009 was a bit surprising to me as no quakes exceeded 3.1M in Washington or Oregon, despite the lunar eclipse, perigee and 8.3-foot tides at the Golden Gate. The summary results follow:
(1) For the Mt. Diablo two degree circle there was a 3.8M near Tres Pinos on February 5th, two days early for a score of (80%). (2) For the L.A. two degree circle there were two quakes near Mexicali of 3.7 and 3.6M on February 9th for a 100% hit. Both were just within the 140 mile radius. At 121 miles from L.A. was a 3.9M near Taft on Feb 15th, one day late for a 90% score.
For the L.A. two degree circle there were two quakes near Mexicali of 3.7 and 3.6M on February 9 for a Both were just within the 140 mile radius. At 121 miles from L.A. was a 3.9M near Taft on Feb 15, one day late for a 90% score.(3) For the Northwest, no quake met the minimum scoring magnitude of 3.2 during the Window. However, there was a startling 4.6M 14 miles west of Seattle on January 31st and a unique 4.1M near Follows, in southwestern Oregon on the morning of February 26th. Both of these non-scoring quakes were in a Secondary Window following the new Moons of Jan. 26 and Feb 24. However, my predicted full Moon Window scored (00%)
For the Northwest, no quake met the minimum scoring magnitude of 3.2 during the Window. However, there was a startling 4.6M 14 miles west of Seattle on January 31 and a unique 4.1M near Follows, in southwestern Oregon on the morning of February 26. Both of these non-scoring quakes were in a Secondary Window following the new Moons of Jan. 26 and Feb 24. However, my predicted full Moon Window scored (4) The Pacific Ring of Fire came thru with a 7.4M in Indonesia on Feb. 11th, for a (score of 100%). This was the first major quake in the world since my predicted January Window. It was followed by a 7.0M in the Kermadec Islands on February 18th, which was the fifth major so far this year, when two to three might be expected.
Summary: .80 + 1.00+ 00 + 1.00 =2.80/4 = 70%
My non-scoring MOSS prediction came very close. The Mediterranean countries had no significant quake until Feb 16, when a 5.6 hit southern Greece. I had called for a 5+M by Feb 15. Also a day late and a dollar short was a 4.6M in Western Turkey.
On Feb. 22nd there were quakes of 3.2M at Pt.. Sal, Pt. Arena and in Oklahoma. During February there were three small quakes of up to 3.0M on the Ramapo Fault in New Jersey.
PREDICTIONS FOR MARCH
The Seismic Window of March 8-15, 2009 depends on the Full Moon of March 10th and the Perigee 87 hours earlier. Tides at the Golden Gate reach a maximum of only 6.8 feet on March 8 (and 12.6 ft. at Puget Sound on March 9.) Not surprisingly,. after seven months of focusing on the full Moon syzygy, I will be switching to the new Moon from April through October, when much higher tidal ranges will occur. For March 8-15th I predict one or more quakes with the following characteristics.
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 2-degrees (140 miles) of Mt. Diablo at 37.9N; 121.9W.
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles City Hall at 34.0N; 118.0W.
(3) 3.5-6.0M with an epicentral address of Oregon or Washington.
(4) 7.0+M globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire where 80% of the strongest quakes have occurred in the past.
My non-scoring MOSS prediction is for a 4,0+M quake in TX or OK during March.2009
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