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Contributed by job
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Thursday, 15 October 2009 |
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“There is no time like the present to start to remember the past.”………………JOB
F O R E S H O C K S
Hello Folks,
Welcome to the shaky month of October. I note that this issue’s number matches U-238. Not only is it one of the three most seismically active months of the year (along with March and April), it follows the autumnal equinox, a time of increased gravitational stresses. There is no better source for this information than the publication by oceanographer Fergus Wood in his masterwork, THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES (NOAA, 1978. [p. 150). He wrote:
“Thus, at times close to the equinoxes, the Sun and Moon are in almost the same declination plane (i.e., approximately 0-degrees) as the Earth’s Equator. When syzygy occurs near the dates of the equinoxes ---because of the nearly coplanar alignments in both declination and right ascension resulting---the Sun’s semidiurnal component of gravitational force will then add an extra 27 percent to the lunar force ((my emphasis) to provide a greater amplification of the Earth’s tides. The tides resulting are known as equinoctial tides. Casual readers need not concern yourselves with the geometric details or unfamiliar terms, but focus on the bold type, which is most important.
I recall a front page article about 25 years ago in the San Jose MERCURY, in which a government geologist expounded on a March/April concentration of earthquakes in the Bay Area. The conclusion was that it was related to the end of the rainy season, which was an attractive hypothesis except it did not mention the equally potent earthquake month of October, which follows the dry season in California. It should be an obvious consideration that the vernal equinox in late March and the autumnal equinox in late September can better explain the boost in tidal forces associated with equinoxes, along with the fact that half of the damaging Bay Area quakes have occurred in just one-quarter of the time available (March/April/October.)
In the two weeks since the last equinox (Sept. 23rd) there has been a flurry of strong earthquakes, three with tsunami. (6.4M) Jalisco, Mexico: (8.0M) Samoa Islands: Sumatra (7.6, 6.8M): (6.1M) Tonga; (6.7M) Celebes Sea; (7.8M, 7.3M, 6.8M) Vanuatu; (7.7, 7.2, 6.9M) Santa Cruz Islands; All quakes were in the Pacific Ring of Fire and the expected number of major global events of 7+M would be one every 25 days, not five in 15 days. Let us continue to keep score.
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Predictions for July 2--9 |
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Contributed by JOB
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Tuesday, 14 July 2009 |
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LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of June 20-27, 2009 was a good one, but not a great one.
It was remarkable that no major quakes have occurred thru July 8, 2009, with the last one being the 7.3M offshore from Honduras last May 28th, during the May Seismic Window. Prior to that one was the 7.6M in the Tonga Islands on March 19th, so that we are in the midst of a Seismic freeze, with a total to date of only six major events so far this year. This compares with expected annual frequencies of about 15 major quakes, so we have some catching up to do.
What is important to consider is that there is a widespread misconception that earthquakes are increasing over the years. The same myth surrounds the generation of hurricanes. You remember that the devastation of Katrina was followed by many official forecasts that hurricane activity would be increasing. Yet the numbers have actually diminished. What about all of those predictions about the solar cycle and increased sunspots and solar storms? Instead we are seeing an almost unprecedented quiet Sun. Where is the global warming? The Northeastern USA is wondering where the summer has gone. What about that June snowstorm in Minnesota?
Mother Nature can be so fickle……….but she sure is interesting.
1. 3.8M The Geysers 6/30 70% hit. 2. 4.1M Catalina Island, June 19, 2009 90% hit3.
4.1M Catalina Island, June 19, 2009 3.8M off the coast of Oregon, June 28, 2009. 90% hit.4. 6.7M New Ireland, June 23, 2009. 70% hit
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June 20-27, 2009 Window + May results |
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Contributed by job
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Sunday, 14 June 2009 |
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LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of May 23-30, 2009 began a 4-month series of Top Windows such as I have seldom seen. The June and July windows may produce spectacular seismicity, and I have mixed emotions about this summer of 2009. ( In my younger years my mid-year thoughts were mainly along the lines of summer employment, as well as getting a dark tan. Now, it is trying to avoid cancer, keeping off excess poundage along with new concerns about living through this American descent to a socialistic society, along with international thumping of nuclear drums.)
May 23-30, 2009 prediction results:
(1) For Northern California my hindsight view through a Seismic Window was that of a seismic desert. The last local quakes exceeding 3.0M were the 3.1M in Oakland on May 13 and the 3.3M near Morgan Hill on May 5th Thus, my prediction scored 00% (2) For Southern California the 3.5M near Mexicali on May 22 barely met my place and magnitude parameters, but scored 100%. Missing by a few hours before the third ring out from a timing bull’s-eye was an impressive 4.0M on the Newport-Inglewood fault on May 19th. Also, a swarm of quakes in Owens Valley shook Olancha from May 23-30, exactly within the May Window. The maximum of 4.7M on May 23rd was 168 miles from Los Angeles, the second ring out from the place bulls-eye for a score of 80%.
) For Southern California the 3.5M near Mexicali on May 22 barely met my place and magnitude parameters, but . Missing by a few hours before the third ring out from a timing bull’s-eye was an impressive 4.0M on the Newport-Inglewood fault on May 19. Also, a swarm of quakes in Owens Valley shook Olancha from May 23-30, exactly within the May Window. The maximum of 4.7M on May 23 was 168 miles from Los Angeles, the second ring out from the place bulls-eye for a score of 80%.(3) The Northwest came through again when a 4.3M struck offshore from Bandon, Oregon on May 26th, scoring 100%. No other quakes in Washington or Oregon even reached a magnitude of 3.0.
The Northwest came through again when a 4.3M struck offshore from Bandon, Oregon on May 26, . No other quakes in Washington or Oregon even reached a magnitude of 3.0.(4) My prediction for a major quake globally proved to be all too correct when a 7.3 magnitude struck on May 28th off the Gulf Coast of Honduras. Although six people perished, it would have been much more disastrous had it hit on land near a highly populated area. This was only the sixth major event this year anywhere on Earth and it was the first in more than two months. (The last one was the 7.6M on March 19th in the Tonga Islands.) The Honduras quake scored 100% for time, place and magnitude.
My prediction for a major quake globally proved to be all too correct when a 7.3 magnitude struck on May 28 off the Gulf Coast of Honduras. Although six people perished, it would have been much more disastrous had it hit on land near a highly populated area. This was only the sixth major event this year anywhere on Earth and it was the first in more than two months. (The last one was the 7.6M on March 19 in the Tonga Islands.) The Honduras quake for time, place and magnitude.(5) My non-scoring MOSS prediction was for a quake of 3.0+M to hit the state of New York during the last half of May. Right on schedule, the capital city of Albany was rattled by a 3.0 on May 18th, barely into the last half of the month. I find that this was even less likely than I had thought, as only three other New York quakes in the past six year have reached my predicted minimum: ( 3.1M, July 28, 2007), (3..2M, Aug. 30, 2007), and (Feb. 03 2009, 3.1M).
My non-scoring MOSS prediction was for a quake of 3.0+M to hit the state of New York during the last half of May. Right on schedule, the capital city of Albany was rattled by a , barely into the last half of the month. I find that this was even less likely than I had thought, as only three other New York quakes in the past six year have reached my predicted minimum: ( 3.1M, July 28, 2007), (3..2M, Aug. 30, 2007), and (Feb. 03 2009, 3.1M). During the May window there were also small quakes of 3.0M near Ottawa, Canada and in Nevada; in addition, a 3.7M shook Cutbank, Montana. My May summary score was 00 +100 +100+100 = 300 / 4 = 75% my long term average.
PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 20-27, 2009. Because of near-record tides I have 85% confidence in (1) One or more events of 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo, and (2) within 140 miles of Los Angeles, and (3) with an epicenter naming Oregon or Washington. Also predicted: (4) a major quake of 7.0+M globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the largest earthquakes have been located.
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