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January Results; February Predictions
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January Results; February Predictions
« on: January 26, 2010, 06:21:14 PM »

LAST  MONTH’S  EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of December 30-January 06, 2010 met the concerns that I had discussed in the last issue of SYZYGY.  The partial lunar eclipse of New Years Eve was just 25 hours before a close perigee and 4 days before the annual closest approach to the Sun.  The Golden Gate tides maxed out at 8.7 feet, which is twice normal.  Just two weeks later came the annular solar eclipse, preceded by the devastating Haiti earthquake of January 12th.  Without local information I did not predict that 6.5M disaster for the Secondary Window in January, but from the table on page one here you can see how eclipses seem to be associated with large earthquakes.   The results for the last window follow:
(1)  For the 140 mile circle around Mt. Diablo, a 4.1M hit near Redway, 180 miles north of the center point, barely scoring the minimum 70%.. One day late (score 90%) was a 4.1M at Alum Rock, followed by a 3.8M the next day.   

(2)  For the circle around Los Angeles a series of quakes began on Dec. 30, hitting south of Mexicali, topped with a 5.8 -5.9M on the first day of the Dec.-Jan. Window but too far south.  However,  a  4.1M shook San Diego on January 3rd (100% score)


(3) For WA/OR there was an on-land quake of 3.6M near Maupin, OR scoring 100%..

(4) World wide the strongest quake in two months, (7.2M), hit the Solomon Islands on January 2nd for a 100% hit.  (Predictor Jack Coles had, on Dec. 28th, called for a 6.5 to 7.4M in the South Pacific on Jan. 2, or Jan. 9-10, 2010.)   The strongest California quake in three years (6.5M) hit west of Eureka on Jan. 9 beyond my window, but winning a long-standing $100 bet for my biographer, Cal Orey.  Unfortunately, for me, I was on the other side and expected the first 6+M to shake the south state (32.0-37.0N)   I was within 0.2M with the above Mexicali quake, which had been first rated by Mexico as a 6.2.  So I was close, but won no cigar.

Overall for the last Window my predictions scored 90+100 +100 +100 = 390/4 = 97.5.



PREDICTIONS FOR FEBRUARY WINDOW
The Seismic Window of Jan 28-Feb 4, 2010 includes the Full Moon of Jan 29, a very close perigee six hours later, and Golden Gate tides of 8.4 ft. on Jan 29.  These conditions create an 80% probability for at least one quake with each of the four parameters:
(1)  3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W)
(2)  3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W
(3)  3.5-6.5M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
(4)  7.0M+ (major quake) globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire which             produces about 80% of the largest quakes in the world.
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