Pacific Plate's Stress Center Update: Fiji - Tonga Trench

[Frank Condon]

Hello all:
What's apparently behind the increase in stress along the Pacific and North American Plate Boundary is an increased number of recent seismic events epicentered within the Equatorial Pacific Plate's Stress Center in Polynesia.

http://www.geo-seismic-labs.org/GSL/REPORTS/2006/AE_SPEC_06_10_02.htm#AE_2006101206ZAE

The Eastern Pacific Rise, both Northern and Southern, were greatly affected by the increase in crustal activity within Polynesia, which is inferred to be induced by increased  convective currents at the core-mantle (c-m)boundary.
The strong seismic events taking place around the Ring of Fire over the past 72 hours in Chile, and elsewhere, are most likely also being remotely triggered by these same convective currents. The EPR activity affects the Gulf of California, and the Spreading Center at the Salton Trough where the Imperial Fault Zone and the Southern San Jacinto Fault Zone are thought to also be conjoined. A recently captured scalar pulse was detected just prior to 06:00 UTC on October 12, 2006. It's inferred to be related to an increase in convective currents coming from the c-m boundary within the Equatorial South Pacific Plate's Stress Center in Polynesia.

Frank Condon
GeoSeismic Labs

[honeybear]

Thanks for keeping us updated Frank.
Kindest regards,
Honeybear

[Sunnygal]

Howdy, Frank,

do you subscribe to the theory, or give it any credence whatsover, called the Mogi circle theory, or something close to that, which I have read about here in the past?

I am watching the Big Island of Hawaii that's to the east of here because I found a historical list of its quake history, and it has sixes and even seven magnitudes and is overdue per that list. In the last two weeks I saw what looked like a rather impressive circle forming, and it looked closer to a circle than I've ever seen it look.

Thank you, if you have time for a reply, and dang are things getting interesting!

[Frank Condon]

Hi Honeybear:
As for the Stress along the Pacific and North American Plate Boundary, it's become critical over the past 72 hours. There's no let up in the viscoelastic shearing at depth along the Pacific Plate. The fractured and brittle upper lithosphere will soon have to catch up with it. It's the makings of what could be a strong seismic event in the not so distant future for California. You all better batten down the hatches, and be ready for the next phase in the process. Remember, the Seismic Alerts and Warnings are in effect while this anomalous, and extremely rare Nucleation of Stress Event continues to be detected. You now have the where's and why's of it, and I'm currently waiting for the when part of this experimental earthquake precursor research effort.

Frank Condon
GeoSeismic Labs

[Frank Condon]

Hi Sunnygal:
Yes, there is some merit to the Mogi Doughnut theory of earthquake predicton.

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF8/866.html

A recent Mogi Doughnut was spotted at the Anza Seismic Gap about one week ago. That still appears to be the most likely epicenter.

Frank Condon
GeoSeismic Labs

[Sunnygal]

Oh wow, aha and lightbulb moment. Thank you! I will have to read that more than once to take it all in, and will be glad to do so. This is cool stuff to ponder and watch for.

I did notice the article says that in the center of the donut where the expected action will occur that quake activity slows way down from normal or stops, then the big one hits or I sure will have to read more slowly when not on the way out the door to shop soon. I am wondering if this can be only a few days or weeks of inaction, and/or much longer.

Sorry for the rambling there, and again, thanks. Hawaii is overdue for something big, and the past few weeks it's been bugging me, but I can't know if it's intuition or anything.

Blessings~


PS....the following is the list of the large earthquakes of the Big island that is officially named "Hawaii."


Year
  Date
  Region
  Magnitude
  Depth (Mi)

1868
  Mar. 28
Mauna Loa south flank
  6.5-7.0*
  No data

1868
  Apr. 2
Mauna Loa south flank
  7.5-8.1*
  No data

1929
  Oct. 5
Hualalai
6.5* 
  No data

1941
  Sept. 25
Kaoiki
  6.0*
  No data

1950
  May 29
Mauna Loa southwest rift
  6.2
  No data

1951
  Apr. 22
Kilauea
  6.3
  20

1951
  Aug. 21
Kona
  6.9
  5

1952
  May 23
Kona
  6.0
  5

1954
  Mar. 30
Kilauea south flank
  6.5
  5

1962
  June 27
Kaoiki
  6.1
  6

1973
  Apr. 26
Honomu
  6.2
  25

1975
  Nov. 29
Kilauea south flank
  7.2
  6

1983
  Nov. 16
Kaoiki
  6.6
  7

1989
  June 25
Kilauea south flank
  6.1
  9

(the last number of each entry is the depth....looks weird without a label)

[amg]

Sunnygal,

And now a 4.6 on the Big Island! Good observation on your part.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/hv00020953.php

[Frank Condon]

Hi Amg:
Since the NSE continues unabated today, I believe the M6.6 Hawaiian Island Earthquake is symbolic of the overall condition of Stress than being the actual cause of it. The Pacific Plate's Stress Center located in Polynesia, and the convective currents at the c-m boundary are what's to blame here. With a sustained high level Nucleation of Stress Event Signal still in progress, the possibility that we are next up to the plate, is also greatly increased. We only have to wait a bit longer before we'll know the actual truth.

Frank Condon
GeoSeismic Labs

[highace]

Frank, I really haven't yet got a full grasp on what and where your'e coming from yet, but I kind of seen something building up along the Tonga Trench on the 12th October also.
I have never seen anything like it before in the last 12 months.


In fact it went right up North from the usual 4+ 100km NE offshore New Zealand we get almost twice weekly, all the way up to Fiji, hard to pin down the actual positions, from the various sources, i.e. they say  South of Fiji/Tonga/Sth of Kermadecs/ NE of NZ etc etc
Positions are exagerated due to scale, but there was certainly something going on along the "Trench"
Hope this confirms what you were saying.

[Frank Condon]

Hi Highace:
Yes, you're getting close to what's going on. It's a bit further Northeast of the Fiji Islands, and close to the equator where the convective currents are increasing, according to the latest data.

Frank Condon
GeoSeismic Labs

[climacus]

I still say we'll have another seismic event repitition for next weekend.

[Sunnygal]

Frank, is this still a focus area? Sometimes when I read your reports since they are so full of terms I am not fluent in, I get lost in the jargon and can't have a good grasp on it yet.

You said "northeast of Fiji" a bit. Still happening in this area?

Climacus, we aren't having enough aftershocks for having had a 6.7.  This bothers me, you post what you did here, Franks was and maybe still is focused in the above mentioned area, and one other on here has predicted Hawaii or Indonesia soon, and we all see that as likely to.....probable. Hmmm...

[Sunnygal]

Magnitude 5.0 - SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS

2006 October 20 14:13:13 UTC
Versíon en Español

Details Summary Maps Scientific & Technical
Where can I find...?
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 5.0 (Moderate)
Date-Time Friday, October 20, 2006 at 14:13:13 (UTC)
= Coordinated Universal Time
Saturday, October 21, 2006 at 2:13:13 AM
= local time at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 22.906°S, 176.903°W
Depth 135.2 km (84.0 miles) set by location program
Region SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
Distances 260 km (160 miles) SW of NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga
310 km (195 miles) SE of Ndoi Island, Fiji
560 km (350 miles) SSW of Neiafu, Tonga
1740 km (1080 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 7.4 km (4.6 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters Nst= 92, Nph= 92, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=0.69 sec, Gp= 76°,
M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=6 
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)