LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKESThe Seismic Window of April 5-12, 2008 was quite productive, which was typical for most Aprils.
(1) For NorCal there was a 3.0M event near Tres Pinos on April 5th and a 2.9M event near Santa Rosa on April 9 for no credit. The nearest quake of 3.5+ was the strongest of a Reno swarm of 3.6, 3.4, 3.4, 3.2 that hit on April 15th, which was three days late (70%) and 14 miles beyond my predicted radius of 140 miles from Mt. Diablo (Score .70 x .90 x 1.00 = 63%).
(2) For SoCal on April 6th a 3.2M shook Barstow (70%) and a 3.6M hit near Ridgecrest Score: 100%); On April 14th a 3.4M rattled Yucca Valley (90%) and on the same day there was a 3.2M near Santa Barbara (70%). On April 4, a 3.7M hit near Ocotillo early and far (63%).
(3) The Northwest came through strongly on the first day of the Window with an unusual quake of 3.6M near Maupin, Oregon (Score: 100%) A lesser score of 70% was received for the 5.2 on April 2nd off the Oregon Coast where a series of stronger quakes have occurred recently, including a 5.0M on April 10th (100%). Also the Full Moon of April 20th was followed the next day by a 3.4M quake near Verlot, Washington.
(4) The Ring of Fire produced two major quakes during the April Seismic Window (numbers four and five for the year globally through April 24 as I write this.) There was a 7.5M event in the Vanuatu Islands (formerly New Hebrides) on April 9th (Score: 100%); two days later it was followed by a second major event that was located near the MacQuarrie Islands (7.2M, which also scored 100%).
(5) My unscored MOSS prediction was a startling success, with the strongest U.S. quake east of the Mississippi River in a decade. I had called for a magnitude 4.0M during the first half of April and missed by only 52 hours when eastern Illinois became the center of a damaging 5.2M quake early on April 18th that was felt from southern Canada to Atlanta to Chicago. It was only about 10 miles deep and was located on the Wabash Valley Fault zone, a NE continuation of the infamous New Madrid Fault. There were many aftershocks, including at least three of 4.0-4.6M. My wife and I were in range, as we spent a couple of hours in Chicago’s Midway Airport, but flew out about 14 hours before the quake. Darn!
I can’t ignore a rare Texas quake of 3.9M that struck in the Window near Falls City on April 7th.
Summary of predictions for April: .63 x 100 x 100 x 100 =363/4 = 90.1%
PREDICTIONS FOR MAYThe Seismic Window of May 4-11, 2008 is based upon the New Moon of May 5th, and the very close perigee just 15 hours later. This Perigean Spring tide is one of only four this year and the Golden Gate maximum daily range in tides will be twice normal (8.6 ft. on May 7). I am 80% confident that one or more quakes will hit during this window with the following parameters:
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles (2 degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W).
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W).
(3) 3.3-6.3M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
(4) 7.0+M major event globally, most likely within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the world’s strongest quakes occur annually. (Currently we have had 5 of the expected 16.)
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